Florida Housing Market Cools Down in Q4 2025

1. Statewide Data Confirms the Cooldown

Multiple independent sources now show the same pattern: Florida is no longer a runaway seller’s market.

Prices: from surge to slight decline

• Analytics firm HouseCanary reports a statewide median closed price of $408,805 in Q3 2025, down about 0.5% year-over-year and slightly lower than Q2. 2025.
• Florida Realtors’ own Q3 2025 data shows the single-family median at $410,000, down about 1.2% from a year earlier, while condo and townhouse medians are down more sharply.
• Zillow’s statewide home-value index (ZHVI) shows Florida’s average home value around $377,000, roughly 5% lower than a year ago, depending on the submarket.

Inventory and days on market

• HouseCanary tracks 127,000+ active listings in Q3 2025 — an inventory jump of roughly 24–25% year-over-year.
• Median days on market statewide has climbed to about 74 days, up from the high-50s a year earlier, meaning buyers have more time and choices.
• Florida Realtors calculate about 5.1 months’ supply for single-family homes and around 9+ months for condos and townhomes, pushing attached housing into clear buyer’s-market territory in many areas.

2. From Red-Hot to “Just Warm”: How Florida Got Here

Between 2020 and 2022, Florida was one of the hottest housing markets in the U.S., driven by remote workers, retirees, investors, and residents fleeing higher-cost states. Inventory collapsed, prices surged, and bidding wars became normal.

By 2023 and early 2024, two big forces started to cool things down: higher mortgage rates and affordability fatigue. Inventory began to rebuild as new construction delivered and some investors chose to sell, while demand eased as buyers hit their price and payment limits.

By mid-2025, data providers were openly describing Florida as a market in transition: closings remained relatively healthy, but inventory and days on market were climbing, and year-over-year price charts started to flatten or tilt slightly downward.

3. What the Cooldown Looks Like on the Ground

More price cuts and negotiation room

• Buyers are seeing more listings with price reductions, especially in vacation-oriented and higher-priced coastal areas.
• In many submarkets, agents report sellers accepting offers several percent below original list price — a sharp contrast with the over-asking frenzy of 2021–2022.
• Homes that are dated, overpriced, or in less convenient locations now sit longer and need concessions (closing-cost credits, repairs, rate buydowns) to move.

Longer days on market

• Statewide, it’s now common to see listings take two to three months to go under contract, especially outside the most desirable neighborhoods.
• Select metros and ZIP codes, particularly in parts of Southwest and South Florida, have even longer median times to contract, reflecting shifting demand and higher ownership costs (insurance, HOA fees, assessments).

More choice for buyers, less urgency

• Instead of one or two homes fitting your criteria, you may now have a half-dozen.
• Buyers can actually schedule second showings, sleep on big decisions, and negotiate repairs — all things that were difficult during the frenzy.

4. Not All Florida Markets Are Cooling the Same Way

Statewide averages hide big differences. Some metros are still seeing modest price growth, while others are clearly correcting from pandemic highs.

Metros with softer or declining prices

• HouseCanary data shows notable year-over-year listing-price drops in areas like Sebastian–Vero Beach, Homosassa Springs, and parts of Southwest Florida, as well as the broader Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach corridor.
• Local reports in markets like Fort Lauderdale, Cape Coral, and other coastal ZIP codes highlight home values down several percent over the past year and time-to-contract stretching toward three months or more.

Markets that remain relatively stable or growing

• Large inland metros such as Orlando, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay show flatter price trends overall, with some neighborhoods still posting small gains.
• Certain areas — including parts of North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota and Tallahassee — continue to show positive year-over-year growth in listing prices based on regional analytics.

5. What the Cooler Market Means for Buyers

If you were outbid or priced out during the boom, Q4 2025 may finally be your window to buy in Florida on less frantic terms.

Advantages for buyers right now

• More choice: With inventory up and new listings staying active longer, you can compare neighborhoods and properties instead of jumping at the first one.
• Negotiating power: Price reductions, seller credits, rate buydowns and contingent offers (sale of current home, inspections) are all more common again.
• Less emotional pressure: The psychological “buy now or never” energy of 2021–2022 has eased. You can take time to run numbers and due diligence.

Risks and things to watch

• Don’t assume big future appreciation. Most forecasts point to flat to slightly down prices in the near term, not another surge.
• Carefully underwrite insurance, HOA/condo fees, and taxes for each property; these costs are a big part of why some markets are cooling.
• Focus on micro-location – school zones, commute, flood risk, building condition – rather than just chasing a discount.

6. What the Cooler Market Means for Sellers

For sellers, the message is simple but important: pricing strategy matters again. You can still sell successfully — but you can’t price as if it’s 2022.

Smart moves for Q4 2025 sellers

• Price with the trend, not last year’s headlines. Look at the most recent 60–90 days of comparable sales and active competition.
• Invest in preparation: clean, repair and stage. In a market with more choices, presentation is a real differentiator.
• Expect some negotiation on price and repairs, and talk with your agent up front about where you’re willing to be flexible.

Red flags to avoid

• Overpricing by “just seeing what happens” in a cooling market — it often leads to multiple price cuts and a lower final sale.
• Ignoring feedback about condition or obvious issues that make buyers walk away.

7. Outlook for 2026: Mild, Not Meltdown

Most major forecasting models see more of the same heading into 2026: a balanced to mildly buyer-leaning market with relatively flat prices overall and big differences by metro.

• HouseCanary’s statewide forecast expects only a small additional price dip from Q3 to Q4 2025 (under 1%) and largely flat performance over the next 12 months.
• Nationally focused forecasts from firms like Zillow also call for a generally stagnant 2025 followed by modest growth in 2026, rather than a crash scenario.
• For Florida specifically, elevated inventory and higher ownership costs (insurance, HOA fees, assessments) are expected to keep the market in a slow-growth, high-selection mode for some time.